E-commerce development forecasts. Ways to improve, optimize and develop e-commerce, forecasts

Every day, humanity is increasingly beginning to use information technology. For this it uses the Internet. Today, almost all organizations open their sites in this system. Ordinary citizens do not stand aside either. They start their own pages on various social networks.

The Internet is an open system with a large audience that allows completely new interactions between users. And it is not surprising that it began to be widely used for e-business. This is a completely new level of not only market and economic, but also socio-cultural relations between organizations and people.

History of creation

It is an integration of legal entities and individuals who work in the field of e-commerce. All of them are united in a network of entrepreneurship. Today, such a system is taking shape at the level of the entire world Internet.

What is e-commerce? Unlike e-business, this concept has a narrower meaning. It implies the use of the Internet as an information channel for organizing business processes. In this case, there is no traditional money-commodity scheme. It is replaced by "information-information".

E-commerce is nothing more than online shopping. Moreover, this type of activity appeared back in the days when humanity was not familiar with the Internet. This happened in 1979, when the American Michael Aldrich decided to link a computer and cable television into a single whole. To do this, he used landline telephone lines. This technology allowed users to order goods that were displayed on the screen. It was only in 1990 that the first browser was invented by Tim Behrens. After that, e-business and e-commerce began their rapid development. So, in 1992, Charles Stack opened the world's first online store selling books. In 1994 Amazon.com started its work, and in 1995 - E-bay.

The development of e-commerce in Russia can be characterized by the following stages:

1.11991-1993 During this period, the Internet has been a medium of communication only between academics, technical centers, computer specialists, and government agencies.
2.1994-1997 At this time, the population of the country begins to take an active interest in the possibilities of the worldwide network.
3. From 1998 to the present, e-business and e-commerce have been actively developing with the help of the Internet.

New opportunities

Enterprises that conduct their business in the traditional way are responsible for every stage of their activities. At the same time, they spend huge amounts of money on the development of goods and their production, further delivery and sale of finished products. The material and technical support of the entire implementation process also requires large financial resources.

But then e-commerce appeared. She began the gradual transformation of enterprise operations into a network of virtual organizations. Moreover, each of the members of this community has the opportunity to concentrate their activities in the most appropriate areas. This made it possible to make deliveries to consumers of the most complete production solution.

After e-commerce appeared, business received new opportunities. With the help of this modern tool, it became possible:

Organization of video conferencing;
- conducting online training;
- mastering new marketing models;
- creation of business information environment systems;
- obtaining a variety of information;
- implementation of financial interaction;
- development of new relationships between companies based on electronic technologies;
- opening of new cheap channels;
- strengthening cooperation;
- support for alternative ideas;
- development of a new economy of production and purchase of goods.

The main tasks of trading on the Internet

The use of e-commerce involves:
- establishing preliminary contacts with potential suppliers, clients and customers via the Internet;
- exchange of documents created in electronic form, which are necessary for the implementation of purchase and sale transactions;
- the sale of a product or service;
- pre-sale advertising of products and after-sales support of the buyer in the form of detailed instructions on the purchased product;
- electronic payment for purchased goods using electronic money, transfers, credit cards and checks;
- delivery of products to the client.

Business-to-business scheme

There are various types of e-commerce. Moreover, their classification assumes the target group of consumers. One of the types of e-commerce is the "business-to-business" or B2B scheme. This interaction is carried out according to a fairly simple principle. It consists in the fact that one company trades with another.

Despite the fact that today there are other types of e-commerce, B2B is the most actively developing area with the best prospects. Thanks to Internet platforms, the entire trading process becomes more efficient and transparent. At the same time, a representative of the customer enterprise has the ability to interactively control the entire process of performing work, rendering services or delivering goods. To do this, he uses the databases of the seller organization.

The peculiarities of the "business-to-business" model include the fact that in this case, conducting e-commerce is impossible without fully automated interaction of organizations for carrying out entrepreneurial activities. And this has a very advantageous prospect. Conducting business in the B2B sector, the company simultaneously solves the problem of its internal management.

Trading platforms for the "business-to-business" scheme

In e-commerce, there are special places where transactions are made and the corresponding financial transactions are carried out. These are trading platforms, which in this case are virtual. They can be created:

Buyers;
- sellers;
- by a third party.

Today, there are three types of marketplaces for the B2B model. This is an exchange, auction and catalog. Let's consider them in more detail.

The creation of a catalog promotes the use of the search capabilities that modern information systems have. At the same time, the buyer has the right to compare and select goods by price, delivery date, warranty, etc. Catalogs are used in those industries where the most frequent transactions are the sale of inexpensive goods, as well as where demand is predictable, and prices change very rarely.

As for the auction, this model of the marketplace is characterized by non-fixed prices. The final cost of the goods is established during the bidding process. Auctions are used when the goods or services sold are unique in their kind. These can be rare items or capital equipment, warehouse stocks, etc.

The third type of virtual trading platform - the exchange - differs in that the prices it offers are regulated by supply and demand, and therefore are subject to strong changes. Such a model is the best suited for the implementation of common items that have several easily standardized characteristics. The exchange is most attractive for those markets where prices and demand are volatile. In some cases, this model allows you to trade anonymously, which is sometimes important for maintaining competitiveness and constant prices.

Experts predict good prospects for e-commerce using this model. First of all, such sales are beneficial to buyers. After all, trading takes place on the corporate commercial portal without the participation of intermediaries. In addition, such a trading platform is characterized by the work of one seller with a large number of buyers.

Recently, new varieties of B2B sales models have emerged. These are catalog systems that bring together multiple sellers. Electronic platforms are also starting to work, combining the features of an exchange and an auction. This kind of e-commerce cuts the time and money involved in selecting and sourcing the best products, as well as closing the deal between buyer and seller.

Business-to-consumer scheme

E-commerce, built on the B2C principle, finds its application in the case when the clients of the enterprise are not legal entities, but individuals. This is usually the retail sale of goods. This method of completing a commercial transaction is beneficial for the client. It makes it possible to significantly speed up and simplify the purchase of the thing he needs. The person no longer needs to visit stores. It is enough for him to study the characteristics of the goods on the seller's website, select the desired model and order the product, which will be delivered to the declared address.

E-commerce on the Internet according to the "business-to-consumer" scheme is beneficial for the supplier as well. He has the ability to quickly track demand, while spending minimal resources on staffing.

Traditional online stores work according to the B2C scheme. Their activities are aimed at a particular target group of consumers. Since 2010, the so-called social commerce appeared and began to develop. It covers the field of selling services and goods on social networks.

One of the largest B2C businesses is the American company Amazon.com. She carries books and has over a million clients all over the world. Using the “business-to-consumer” scheme, the company has equalized access to goods between customers of different countries. And it does not matter where the customer lives, in a large city or in a remote region.

Trading platforms for the "business-to-consumer" scheme

In the B2C sector, goods are sold through:

Electronic stores and shopping malls;
- Web-showcases;
- specialized Internet systems;
- auctions.

Let's take a closer look at these trading platforms. E-commerce by small and medium-sized businesses is usually conducted through online stores. These virtual sites are nothing more than company sites. Internet ranks are a more complex structure. They host several virtual stores at the same time.

E-commerce in Russia is often conducted through small Web-windows. These stalls are typically owned by small businesses. The main elements of such sites are catalogs or price lists, which describe the product or service itself, as well as a system for collecting orders from customers.

Internet trading systems (TIS) are used by large holdings, companies and corporations. Such virtual sites allow enterprises to improve the efficiency of the supply and sales service, as well as build the most rational supply chains to provide the production process with raw materials, materials, equipment, etc.

Many organizations use dedicated Web sites to conduct e-commerce. On them, any seller can display their goods at the original price. These Web sites are electronic auctions. Buyers interested in purchasing a product can indicate a higher value for it. As a result, the seller makes a deal with the organization that is willing to pay more.

Consumer-consumer scheme

The development of e-commerce has led to the emergence of C2C deals. They occur between non-entrepreneurial consumers. In this e-commerce scheme, sellers post their offers on special Internet sites that are a cross between the usual second-hand market and newspaper ads. For example, in the United States, this provider is ebay.com. It is a third party that allows consumers to complete any transactions in real time. Moreover, they take place directly on the Internet and have the format of an electronic auction. The C2C model has become very popular today. At the same time, buyers are pleased with the prices of the goods, which are lower than in stores.

Other schemes

What else can e-commerce be like? In addition to the most common schemes described above, there are several others. They are not very popular, but they are used in a number of specific cases. Thus, the use of e-commerce has become possible in the interaction of both legal entities and individuals with government agencies. This concerns filling out questionnaires and collecting taxes, working with customs structures, etc. Such forms of interaction became possible only with the development of Internet technologies.

A significant advantage of such an e-commerce scheme is the facilitation of the work of civil servants and the release of payers from some of the paperwork.

Basic rules for entrepreneurs

Everyone who wants to have their own business based on information technology should know commerce. There are certain simple rules that should be a kind of multiplication table for any seller. Anyone who wants to become a winner in the competition must:

Create a user-friendly website optimized for search engines;
- turn your visitors into buyers;
- carry out marketing activities that will popularize the site on the Internet;
- analyze sales statistics.

Prospects for the development of e-commerce

Today in Russia there are certain factors that have a significant impact on the development of EC. Among them:

The large extent of the country's territory, requiring a decrease in the impact of the currently existing restrictions on the sale of goods, which are associated with the remoteness of market entities;
- the importance of increasing for the merger of Russian business with world information and economic processes;
- the problem of reducing trade costs, which would allow our products to become competitive in the world market;
- the need for more careful control over the sale of goods by the enterprises themselves and by the fiscal authorities;
- the importance of the dynamic development of the technological base of organizations with the introduction of the most modern means of informatics.

The development of EC in Russia is facilitated by the traditionally high level of higher education. In addition, the country's financial authorities have already developed the latest banking technologies, the use of which allows customers to conduct transactions. The security of e-commerce in Russia is ensured by the available technical solutions. They involve the use of tools that provide cryptographic protection of information provided by participants in virtual trading.

But in our country there are also some problems of e-commerce. So, the process of development of virtual trade is significantly slowed down due to:

Low market relations new to us;
- imperfection of the legal framework;
- a high degree of monopolization of the economy;
- insufficient development of the infrastructure of commodity markets;
- imperfection of the system of credit and financial relations.

Every modern entrepreneur doing business now faces the question: is it worth ordering an online store? Will there be some kind of economic effect from this, or will it be wasted money? Is someone buying over the Internet? How significant is the number of such buyers? How much will it cost to create and promote an online store? Is it worth exploring unfamiliar commercial territories on the Internet? We will talk about the prospects for the development of trade via the Internet and how things are now.

Ukraine recently adopted a law on taxation of online stores, which indicates that the number of online purchases has become significant... Marketing research and social surveys tell us the same. It is much more profitable for a person, for example, to buy a laptop on the Internet, since it is much cheaper.

The increase in the number of online sales is not at all surprising - the forward-thinking entrepreneurs who were at the origin of Internet commerce foresaw this, and here is why: firstly, we are several years behind in economic development from developed countries, therefore, if they have a long time ago e-commerce is developed (according to statistics, about 70% of transactions and sales are carried out through the Network), then we will soon develop :). And secondly (although, these two phenomena are interrelated), people over the past two years have massively joined the World Wide Web, thereby creating the basis for the development of commerce via the Internet. Now children are talking about the Internet, Zadornov jokes, and advanced youth cannot imagine life without it.

Statistics and forecasts for the development of e-commerce

Statistics say, and you can see it yourself, that our people are just beginning to carefully buy over the Internet. Beware, because there is too much fraud on the Internet, which also goes unpunished. But all more and more a number of people are more and more daring to buy over the Internet. This trend will continue to grow - online, you can buy chic items in a Slovak or Hong Kong store that you won't find locally. It is also much cheaper. You can go around many shops without leaving your home, without spending half a day looking for the right thing.

People are becoming more and more busy, time is becoming more and more scarce. People's lack of time is one of the reasons why e-commerce will grow rapidly. But only those stores will be successful if:

• take care of the client . Product picture, size and product information must correspond to reality, otherwise the client will no longer come to this store, besides, he will warn others - it will ruin his reputation (fortunately, ruining his reputation on the Internet is as easy as shelling pears);
• fast delivery ... If delivery did not take a long time, there would be many more people buying over the Internet - buyers are impatient. The problem will be solved when online stores appear in each city and delivery will be carried out throughout the day (for example, in our city - Rivne - there are no well-known online stores yet);
• will be the first on the market - that is, in the near future. TOP Google and other search engines are not rubber, and buyers usually do not go to the hundredth page of search results :). In addition, a good online store forms a circle of regular and grateful customers who trust it much more than a new store.

Trading over the Internet has its advantages and disadvantages. An entrepreneur needs to learn how to trade over the Internet, learn how to attract a client to the Internet. You need to deal with the delivery. But this is much more profitable and promising than, for example, opening an offline outlet. The Internet has no boundaries and only your ambitions determine how global your business will be.

How much is this pleasure?

The price for creating an online store can range from $ 400 to several tens of thousands of conventional units, depending on the ambitions of the studio that undertakes its creation. However, this is not the main thing - even the most expensive and sophisticated online store will not give any return if you do not engage in its promotion. The store can be simple in execution, the main thing is that it lends itself to promotion. In my practice, I have come across such online stores (I will not name the manufacturer of these stores), which are almost impossible to promote! It depends on the software that is used to develop the online store. Therefore, before ordering an online store, consult a specialist.

Promotion is a more complicated process than creation, and, accordingly, it costs more. The price also depends on the ambitions of the performer. Not all performers are decent - you also need to be careful when choosing. An online store is more difficult to promote than a website.

Nevertheless, entrepreneurs pay much more for the rent of retail premises, salaries for sellers and other fees.

From point of view consumer in the online store, functions such as

• speed of loading (which means simplicity, since "bells and whistles" in the form of flash, large photos, videos and complex designs significantly slow down the process of loading the store, which often leads to the departure of the visitor);
• convenient and quick way to buy;
• good description and picture of the product;
• acceptable payment method.

The rest - fast delivery and quality of the goods - depends on you.

The world is constantly changing, and this is wonderful, because during these changes tremendous opportunities appear for those who develop together with the World.

Now time to learn to trade online... This skill will give you the opportunity to be far ahead of your competitors. While they make their first attempts, you will already occupy the first positions.

I wish you to be in the ranks of the first !!!

E-commerce in Russia as the basis of electronic information business at the present stage contains a number of questions and problems, therefore the analysis and identification of its structural elements, main trends and patterns of development in the Russian market is a necessary condition for the further development of commercial activities in Russia as a whole.

Note that e-commerce refers to business processes based on information technology or commercial activities on the Internet. The term "e-commerce" should be considered as a narrower concept - it is
the process of remotely purchasing physical and non-physical goods and services through telecommunication networks.

At the present stage of development, e-commerce allows organizations to significantly reduce financial and time resources, increase competitiveness, enter new sales markets, receive additional information about consumer needs, and quickly respond to changes in demand. Many companies are leveraging the power of e-commerce to provide complementary pre and after sales services.

Currently, the e-commerce market in Russia is at the stage of intensive development. According to the research agency Data Insight, the volume of the Russian e-commerce market in 2011 amounted to 310 billion rubles, in 2012 - 392 billion rubles (an increase of 26%). Some of the leading e-retailers have seen sales increase of 200-300%.
It should be noted that the growth rates of this sector of the economy are significantly ahead of the growth rates of the country's economy: in 2012, Russia's GDP grew by 3.5%, and e-commerce - by 26%.
According to the company's experts
J'son &Partners Consulting, in the coming years, stable growth rates are expected at the level of 15-20% annually. T when to
In 2020, the volume of the e-commerce market will be more than 2,180 billion rubles. (picture 1).

Figure 1 - The volume of the e-commerce market in Russia (billion rubles)

However, the e-commerce segment in the economy of our country has become noticeable only in recent years. Until 2011, the share of sales via the Internet was less than 1% of the total trade in Russia, in 2012 - about 2% (Figure 2). Similar indicators were noted in the USA and Great Britain in 2003 and 2005, and at the moment - the share of e-commerce in these countries is more than 10%, which allows us to conclude that there is a significant reserve for further growth of the Russian e-commerce market. According to experts, the e-commerce segment by 2020 will account for about 7% of the total trade in Russia. In developed markets (China, France, Germany, Brazil), this figure is currently about 5%.

Figure 2 - The share of the e-commerce market in the total volume of trade in Russia

It should be noted that in Russia there is an imbalance in the development of the e-commerce market by region (Figure 3). More than 60% of online stores are concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg, where about 15% of the country's population live. According to the forecasts of Morgan Stanley experts, by 2020 the volume of Internet sales in the capital districts will grow by 30%, while in other regions the growth will average 55%.

Figure 3 - Forecast of distribution of sales via the Internet by regions of Russia

At the moment, there is a situation where a significantly larger number of buyers from regions create a much lower turnover than residents of megalopolises. This is primarily due to the earlier penetration of high-speed Internet access to large cities, also due to higher income and a more developed logistics infrastructure. Russians are slowly getting used to the Internet - according to the Data Insight research agency, only 11% start to make online purchases immediately after connecting, the majority (about 45%) need two to five years to adapt. In total, about 22 million people in Russia have personal experience in making purchases via the Internet.

Currently, in the structure of the e-commerce market, the largest share is occupied by the sector of non-physical goods and services, in 2012 it is 65% and is estimated at 255 billion rubles (Figure 4).Traditionally, transport tickets have been the bulk of online shopping, with rail travel as popular as air travel. Also, such segments should be highlighted here as digital content, hotels and tourism, payment of fines and sanctions, and communication services.

Figure 4 - The structure of the e-commerce market in Russia 2012 and 2017

In the sector of goods with physical delivery (35% of the market), such segments as clothing, footwear, perfumery and cosmetics have been developing very actively in recent years. It should be noted that the sector of physical goods has been actively growing since the formation of the market, the total volume in 2012 is estimated at 137 billion rubles. In the coming years, a slowdown in growth is expected, and by 2016-2017 the share of physical goods will stabilize at around 40% of the market.
An important trend is the outpacing growth of online stores in the physical market compared to catalog and network marketing.

The Russian e-commerce market has a number of specific features. Firstly, delivery of goods in Russia is expensive, and often online stores have to subsidize it. Secondly, eh e-commerce in Russia is mainly promoted by web and information technology specialists, rather than by trade and business organization experts. As a result, there are many experimental developments and online stores that are not very convenient for both buyers and sellers.
Another feature of the Russian e-commerce market is the large role of cash. At the moment, the average check of a user when buying goods in online stores is 3.8 thousand rubles, while more than 60% prefer to pay for purchases in cash, which hinders the development of online commerce. It should be noted here that in Russia consumers still remain distrustful of electronic payment systems in relation to their legality and reliability.Another urgent problem not only for e-commerce, but also for other types of activity on the Internet is the lack of a clear and complete regulatory framework for doing business in this environment.

What is E-commerce for Ukraine a few years ago and today? What are the prospects for the retail e-commerce segment in Ukraine in the context of global trends?

I will not go into detail on the advantages and what is E-commerce in this article, I will briefly only note that e-commerce is buying and selling online. Benefits of e-Commerce for consumers (in short):

• price (due to the lower cost price, so, for example, there is no need to pay rent for retail space)
• 24x7 support, access to a selection of products from anywhere, the ability to compare products and prices in different stores at any time
• Viewing reviews, as well as the possibility of writing them, studying characteristics, studying practical experience in video reviews
• Wide coverage, expansion of the sales market without restrictions
• Involvement of a wide range of methods for promoting goods / services, Internet marketing, social marketing, personalization of a sales proposal.

And much more…

And if a few years ago, online shopping was the prerogative of the segment of large online stores of household appliances, electronics and gadgets, primarily due to the possibility of an uncomplicated showroom (shopping tactics for choosing a product, inspecting it and getting advice in offline stores, as a rule, of large chains, and shopping online), then already now the advantages of buying / selling through online stores are understood by both sellers and buyers. And most of the sellers have equalized prices offline and online. As a result, now there is a boom in online stores, which covers more and more new market segments from clothing to food.

Electronic commerce (E-commerce) in Ukraine and the world - in numbers

Let's start with the world's e-commerce statistics.

1. Dynamics of growth in retail trade in the world since 2014 with a forecast up to 2020 (in billions of US dollars)

2. Regions and countries leading e-commerce in 2016

3. Leading countries of e-commerce

Currently, almost half of humanity uses the Internet and more than every fourth an inhabitant of the earth is online shopper.
As you can see from the graph and table, the world leader in e-commerce is not even the United States, but China. You can also familiarize yourself with internet marketing in China in more detail in my other article.

TOP 10 countries by the volume of online trade transactions in 2016 amounted to 85.2%, of which:

1. China - 33.7%
2. USA - 26.2%
3. United Kingdom - 7.7%
4. Japan - 5.0%
5. France - 3.2%
6. Germany - 2.9%
7. South Korea - 2.8%
8. Canada - 1.6%
9. India - 1.1%
10. Russia - 1.0%.

Thus, the rest of the world accounts for only 14.8%. And somewhere in these numbers is all of our Ukrainian e-commerce…

Now let's look at the statistics in contrast. e-commerce (E-commerce) in Ukraine.

4. Ukrainian eCommerce in numbers

According to the research of the e-commerce market of Kreditprombank (which in turn used materials from Morgan Stanley Research, Fintime, Forbes.ua, Gemius Ukraine, InMind, InAU), the Ukrainian e-commerce market looks like this:

Development of eCommerce in Ukraine to date:

As can be seen from the table, growth rates as penetration e-commerce in the economy, and the actual volumes in monetary terms are growing rapidly, however, unfortunately, we are still far from the level of the countries from the TOP-10. It is also obvious that the future of trade in Ukraine is in eCommerce.

Sources of statistics:

• Analytical report "Retail e-commerce sales worldwide from 2014 to 2020 (in billion U.S. dollars)" by the international marketing agency Statista (New York):https://www.statista.com/statistics/379046/worldwide-retail-e-commerce-sales/
• Analytical report “Global B2C E-commerce Report 2016” according to the Ecommerce Foundation, GFK, Asendia, Ingenico, MarketShare, WebHelp:https://www.ecommercewiki.org/wikis/www.ecommercewiki.org/images/5/56/Global_B2C_Ecommerce_Report_2016.pdf
• Report "Kreditprombank":http://www.kreditprombank.com/upload/content/512/E-commerce_Market_in_Ukraine.pdf

But in order to better understand in practice, what else difference between Ukrainian eCommerce and international in addition to dry growth figures, their own investigation-experiment was done.

Ecommerce in practice (experience of choosing and buying online 2017)

Testing E-commerce! For the example of this article, I chose a consumer bundle that includes:

• children's pajamas (little men);
• baby bodysuits;
• hats;
• socks;
• knitted blanket.

Let's make a real purchase on behalf of a consumer, a girl of 20-30 years old with average knowledge of English, using the Internet at the level of a confident user.

So let's go!

The request “buy clothes for newborns” offered the following online stores with high results in website promotion (1st page in Google):

• www.simpatyashka.com.ua
• www.mamindom.ua
• www.kenguru.net.ua
• babystores.com.ua
• other.

In general, stores of goods for children with different price ranges (not always of appropriate quality) are quite standard for the Ukrainian market. The ease of use and functionality of most of these sites leaves much to be desired :). And inappropriate terms of cooperation and delivery forces you to continue searching up to 10 and further pages of the search engine.

However, as you know, crowd marketing techniques, namely reviews and word of mouth, often play a decisive role in choosing the right store and product (especially products for children). Plus, in the context of globalization, in order to contrast with Ukrainian online stores, international experience is needed, preferably from the above-mentioned TOP-10 countries. Thus, the English site NEXT got into the experiment.
NEXT - popular British store of fashion clothes, which has about 200 franchise stores in more than 40 countries, and directly delivery of goods is carried out almost all over the world, including for Ukrainian consumers.

As it turned out, the often inconvenient logistics issue was successfully resolved in the case of an English online store: courier delivery of goods to Ukraine (and not only to Kiev) from London is carried out within a maximum of one week and absolutely free! Which is almost impossible for online stores on the Ukrainian market.

And finally. How do we all get used to tracking the ordered goods over the Internet? Probably…. no way :) Only by calling the store manager personally, you can hope for a meager amount of information that the goods have been sent (or goods are on the way, etc.).

What is the English online store doing at this time? Each action is reported in a contactless form (+ SMS notifications are received):

The result of such cooperation (delivered in 5 days):

A similar set of goods was purchased in one of the Ukrainian online stores from the TOP-20 at the above request.

The general picture is presented in the following table:

* Based on the analysis of TOP-20 sites in search results.
** I would very much like the same emotions to arise after purchases in online stores in Ukraine.

A similar picture persists in other segments. For example, AliExpress will appear in technology instead of Next, Ikea will compete with Ukrainian online stores in household goods, and eBay, Amazon and other whales of the e-commerce world will compete in a wider segment.

Forecast of the development of E-commerce in Ukraine for 2017-2018, opportunities and threats of the e-commerce market

What conclusion can be drawn from all this? In 2017–2018 e-Commerce will be characterized by the following:

• further blurring of market boundaries, globalization
• gradual formation of global requirements and consumer expectations in terms of price, service, delivery speed, choice of assortment and quality of goods
• increased competition, both domestic and international
• growth of online trading volumes
• an increase in the number of consumers who prefer to shop online
• replenishment of the online segment with new industries in both B2C and B2B.

This is also threats and opportunities simultaneously.

To successfully compete in the Ukrainian market of online transactions, our Ukrainian owners of online stores need to invest in their business, invest in services that make shopping more convenient and easier, promote sites in search engines (SEO), advertise, expand the range, including by selling products of Ukrainian manufacturers, to optimize costs and become more competitive!

As a result, we can say that forecast for e-Commerce Ukrainian online stores overall positive: more consumers will become online shoppers and more stores will open their online stores, information and directory sites will add e-commerce to the current CMS.

The total market size, amounting to $ 5.65 billion at the end of 2016, will double by the end of 2018 and will exceed the $ 10 billion mark.

Everyone who has offline trading, be sure to launch online stores, those who already have them - implement the best solutions of world players, grow, become more convenient and use the entire arsenal of online marketing for online stores.

Internet commerce accounts for about 4% of the total volume of Russian retail and maintains a positive trend. So far, only a quarter of the Russian Internet audience is making online purchases, and further migration of buyers to the Internet will “build up” the market regardless of the economic situation.

Electronic commerce is considered to be the largest sector of the Runet economy in terms of volume. Its volume exceeded 760 billion rubles in 2015, according to the Association of Internet Trade Companies (AKIT). Growth rates remain positive, although they have declined from 30% to 7% per year. The sector's share in the total volume of domestic retail is 3-4%. For comparison: in Germany or the United States, this figure is twice or three times higher, and the leader is South Korea with a share of over 15% of offline retail.

Forecast of the development of the e-commerce market, according to the research "Runet Economy 2015-2016" * , for 2015 is optimistic. Growth of about 20% is expected.

The stable development of Internet retail is associated with the further spread of access to the Internet, an increase in the share of mobile traffic, as well as the evolution of Internet services themselves. An additional incentive for this market in Russia is the development of logistics operators and services of the Russian Post. So, in 2015, the post office delivered almost twice as many goods from online stores than in 2014, and 4.5 times more than in 2013.

The flow of online shopping continues. But if in the crisis years of 2008-2009 the domestic retail e-commerce market grew by 25-30%, now it is by 10-15%, explains Ivan Kurguzov, executive director of the Oborot.ru portal. “This is due to a more significant change in purchasing behavior and a sharp increase in inbound cross-border trade. According to some experts, in terms of the number of units of goods sold, this is almost a quarter of the Russian market, ”the expert explains.

AKIT records a 7% drop in the number of domestic orders with a twofold increase in the number of parcels from abroad. In monetary terms, the volume of cross-border e-commerce increased by 5% and amounted to about 220 billion rubles.

Against the background of the depreciation of the ruble, attention to Chinese online stores is noticeably increasing. According to a study by Yandex. Market ”and research company GfK, the number of Russian buyers using this channel increased by 30% over the year. Chinese players are increasing their physical presence in Russia and building strategic partnerships in the field of logistics.

Mark Zavadsky, director of business development for AliExpress in Russia and the CIS, notes that the trend of more "thoughtful" shopping, when people spend more time looking for quality goods at the best price, is in the hands of the retailer. “The popularity of AliExpress in Russia is steadily growing: according to TNS Global, we are consistently among the ten most demanded sites on the Runet,” he comments. “We are constantly working to improve our service: we are connecting new Russian sellers - Philips, Bork, Unilever, have introduced a cash payment option, which is very convenient for buyers in the regions, we are improving delivery conditions and guarantees.”

At the same time, AliExpress is seeing a drop in purchasing power. This primarily applies to the Russian regions. Over the past year, real incomes of the population have decreased, which affects the change in the structure of demand for online purchases in favor of inexpensive goods of little-known brands. So, according to AKIT, more than 60% of orders of Russian buyers in online stores did not exceed $ 22.

Prospects for further growth of online retail are associated with the possibility of reducing barriers, including legislative ones, Ivan Kurguzov believes. “However, the progressive growth will continue even in the absence of significant changes. A certain danger is posed by reduced access to investment and the work of many large players without profit, which can lead to a change in the composition of market participants. However, those retailers that will not be represented on the Internet will eventually lose the competition, ”he sums up.

The main trend in recent years has been an increase in the number of purchases made from mobile devices. The mobile commerce market globally has grown by an average of 40% over the past three years, according to a study by the PayPal payment system, against the backdrop of a 13% CAGR for the e-commerce market.

According to the estimates of the consulting company Capgemini, mobile money, e-wallets and virtual currencies account for up to 10.5% of the total global cashless payments market. The UAE, China and Turkey are in the lead here, where the share of mobile shopping is, respectively, 24, 21 and 19% of all online purchases. Globally, more than a third of electronic payments in 2015 were made from smartphones and tablets. The most active Asian payment systems are JCB, UnionPay and Alipay. The share of mobile payments in their turnover was 54, 31 and 44%, respectively. In European systems, the indicators are similar: 47% of Open Invoice payments (Germany and Scandinavian countries) are made on mobile devices. In the pan-European system SEPA Direct Debit, the share of mobile payments is 22%.

The share of payments from smartphones reached 68% in the total turnover of mobile payments against 32% on tablets. The largest average bill belongs to iPad owners ($ 107).

Today, both Internet giants are focused on the development of mobile sales - for example, Google, which indexes mobile product pages and optimizes ad formats, and social networks. Instagram, Facebook and Pinterest are developing mobile apps and developing scenarios for increasing mobile commerce costs. An additional channel will be messengers, which already have brand pages, payment systems and the ability to track orders.

* As part of state support for non-governmental non-profit organizations, the Non-Commercial Partnership "Association for Electronic Communications" is implementing a socially significant project "Annual All-Russian Research of the Domestic High-Tech Market" Runet Economy 2015-2016 ".

During the implementation of the project, state support funds are used, allocated as a grant in accordance with the order of the President of the Russian Federation dated 01.04.2015 No. 79-rp and on the basis of a competition held by the ISEPS Foundation.

Pay with a glance

The largest online retailers in the world strive to speed up and simplify the payment of purchases for the client as much as possible. For example, the online hypermarket Amazon plans to launch a payment system that will allow you to confirm an online payment by winking at the camera of a tablet or smartphone. Facial recognition technology will confirm that the image matches the identified person and authorize the transaction. In turn, MasterCard is testing a technology that will make it possible to make payments using a “selfie” - Selfie Pay, which is also based on facial recognition.